The European Union’s assertive move to sanction Israel is a bold exercise in wielding its economic leverage, but it also raises the question of whether the bloc is overplaying its hand. By deploying its most powerful non-military tools, the EU risks discovering the limits of its own power, potentially leaving it with fewer options if the situation deteriorates further.
The entire strategy is predicated on the assumption that economic pressure can compel a change in Israel’s security policy. If this assumption proves to be wrong—if Israel absorbs the economic hit and continues its campaign unabated—the EU will be left in a weakened position. Its biggest threats will have been made and ignored, diminishing its credibility.
There is also the risk of alienating Israel to the point of no return, losing any ability to act as a mediator or influential partner in the region. A complete breakdown in relations would leave the field open to other actors, like Russia, China, or regional powers, potentially undermining European interests in the long run.
Furthermore, the internal divisions within the EU represent a significant weakness. If the sanctions are passed by a slim, contentious majority, Israel may calculate that it can simply wait for a change in the political winds in Europe. A policy that does not have the unified backing of the entire bloc is inherently less stable and less intimidating.
While the EU’s action is a decisive attempt to shape events, it is also a moment of strategic risk. By putting all its economic cards on the table, the bloc is making a high-stakes bet that its leverage is sufficient to achieve its goals. If it is not, the EU may find its influence in the Middle East significantly diminished.