President Donald Trump is demonstrating the art of the threat by leveraging profound uncertainty against Russian President Vladimir Putin. By presenting a range of extreme options—from “massive sanctions” to “doing nothing”—Trump has created an unpredictable environment that complicates Moscow’s strategic planning.
The lack of a single, clear threat forces Putin to calculate the risks of multiple scenarios. Is the economic pain of sanctions worse than the strategic loss of U.S. disengagement? This uncertainty is a powerful tool designed to induce action.
This strategy is being deployed with a tight two-week deadline, preventing Russia from engaging in lengthy deliberations or stall tactics. It forces an immediate choice, cornering Putin into making a decision on a summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Putin has responded to this uncertainty with a direct appeal to Trump, praising him as a “light at the end of the tunnel.” This is an attempt to cut through the strategic ambiguity and create a more predictable, personal channel for negotiation, thereby reducing the power of Trump’s uncertain threats.