From Beijing’s perspective, the timing is perfect to push the Trump administration for a landmark concession on Taiwan. Several converging factors make this a moment of unique opportunity for China to demand that the U.S. “oppose” the island’s independence, a long-sought prize in its foreign policy.
First, the Trump administration’s “America First” doctrine and transactional approach to foreign policy are seen as a significant opening. Chinese leaders perceive an administration that is less bound by historical precedent and more focused on achieving tangible, short-term economic wins. They are betting that President Trump’s desire for a trade deal outweighs his commitment to the abstract principle of strategic ambiguity.
Second, China is operating from a position of growing strength. Decades of rapid economic growth have funded a massive military modernization, giving Beijing more confidence in its ability to project power and intimidate its neighbors. This growing hard power is now being translated into more assertive diplomatic demands.
Third, there is a sense of urgency under President Xi Jinping, who has closely tied his personal legacy to the “reunification” of Taiwan. Unlike his predecessors, who were often content to let the issue simmer, Xi has made it a central goal of his “China Dream.” He cannot be seen as making no progress on this front, and a U.S. policy shift would constitute a major step forward.
Finally, Beijing likely sees internal divisions and a sense of “Taiwan fatigue” in the U.S. The constant need to manage this complex issue is a drain on American resources, and China may believe that some in Washington are looking for an excuse to reduce their commitments. For all these reasons, Beijing has calculated that now is the time to strike and push for a change that could permanently alter the geopolitical landscape in its favor.