Even as he unleashes a new barrage of economic threats, President Donald Trump has signaled he still hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, telling reporters he expects to have a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin “this week or early next week.” This dual approach of pressure and dialogue defines his administration’s chaotic strategy for ending the war in Ukraine.
The primary form of pressure is the new proposal for the US and EU to levy 100% tariffs on India and China, a move designed to cripple Russia’s economic support system. This plan was presented to European officials in Washington as a powerful tool to force Putin’s hand.
Simultaneously, Trump is keeping the lines of communication open to the Kremlin. His mention of an upcoming call suggests that the tariff proposal may be, in part, a tactic to gain leverage in those future negotiations. It creates a “good cop, bad cop” dynamic, with diplomacy as the carrot and a massive trade war as the stick.
This multifaceted strategy is fraught with risk. The tariff threat could backfire, alienating not only India and China but also European allies who may be hesitant to join such an aggressive action. Furthermore, the entire policy is at the mercy of a pending Supreme Court decision that could strip Trump of his stick altogether.